Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 0.016280 0.018438 0.020794 0.023560 0.026722 0.030229 0.034419
2024-10-27 0.012310 0.015099 0.018411 0.022647 0.027940 0.034358 0.042768
2024-11-03 0.010850 0.014040 0.018049 0.023485 0.030702 0.040014 0.053029
2024-11-10 0.009753 0.013182 0.017695 0.024113 0.033077 0.045254 0.063224
2024-11-17 0.008894 0.012479 0.017389 0.024669 0.035293 0.050393 0.073770
2024-11-24 0.007945 0.011514 0.016577 0.024359 0.036163 0.053624 0.081831
2024-12-01 0.007186 0.010724 0.015902 0.024131 0.037061 0.056902 0.090242
2024-12-08 0.006554 0.010048 0.015311 0.023934 0.037935 0.060168 0.098925
2024-12-15 0.006195 0.009746 0.015246 0.024527 0.040083 0.065620 0.111771
2024-12-22 0.005702 0.009181 0.014707 0.024284 0.040807 0.068766 0.120991
2024-12-29 0.005474 0.009021 0.014798 0.025080 0.043341 0.075203 0.136739
2025-01-05 0.004972 0.008359 0.013995 0.024262 0.042960 0.076468 0.143103
2025-01-12 0.004591 0.007879 0.013473 0.023909 0.043420 0.079366 0.153070
2025-01-19 0.004162 0.007280 0.012696 0.023029 0.042824 0.080256 0.159248
2025-01-26 0.004041 0.007215 0.012854 0.023878 0.045565 0.087762 0.179672
2025-02-02 0.003898 0.007097 0.012903 0.024518 0.047958 0.094826 0.200065
2025-02-09 0.003755 0.006967 0.012916 0.025084 0.050251 0.101920 0.221424
2025-02-16 0.003514 0.006629 0.012505 0.024768 0.050697 0.105217 0.234742
2025-02-23 0.003303 0.006334 0.012154 0.024535 0.051289 0.108874 0.249331
2025-03-02 0.003114 0.006066 0.011833 0.024336 0.051926 0.112681 0.264751
2025-03-09 0.003025 0.005991 0.011890 0.024939 0.054382 0.120807 0.291705
2025-03-16 0.002856 0.005740 0.011568 0.024692 0.054897 0.124538 0.308191
2025-03-23 0.002800 0.005718 0.011721 0.025502 0.057921 0.134471 0.341931